{"id":4847,"date":"2020-01-14T14:12:02","date_gmt":"2020-01-14T11:12:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/?p=4847"},"modified":"2020-01-20T00:49:56","modified_gmt":"2020-01-19T21:49:56","slug":"deniz-seviyeleri-yukseliyor-istanbul-ve-adalar-icin-de-tehdit-artiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/?p=4847","title":{"rendered":"Deniz seviyeleri y\u00fckseliyor, \u0130stanbul ve Adalar i\u00e7in tehdit art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Etkisi giderek artan k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, karbon emisyonu ve iklim krizi d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda deniz seviyelerini y\u00fckseltmeye devam ediyor. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel ortalama deniz seviyesi yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131lda 11\u201316 cm y\u00fckselirken\u00a0(1), bu y\u00fckseli\u015f karbon emisyonlar\u0131ndaki k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemlere ra\u011fmen atarak devam ediyor. \u00a0Climate Central taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ve Nature Communications\u2019da yay\u0131mlanan (2) bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, 2050\u00a0y\u0131l\u0131na kadar\u00a0yakla\u015f\u0131k\u00a0300 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklarda sular y\u00fckselecek. Artan\u00a0gelgit seviyeleri ve ortalama deniz seviyesindeki y\u00fckselme 30 milyonu \u00c7in\u2019de olmak \u00fczere, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak su alt\u0131nda\u00a0kalmas\u0131na neden olacak.\u00a0Son tahminler, k\u00fcresel ortalama deniz seviyesinin 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 20-30 cm y\u00fckselmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. (3)<\/p>\n

Etkilenecek topraklarda ya\u015fayan insanlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu Asya’da geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde bulunuyor.\u00a0Kronik k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131nlar\u0131 veya kal\u0131c\u0131 su bask\u0131nlar\u0131, Banglade\u015f, Vietnam, \u00c7in ve bir\u00e7ok ada \u00fclkesi\u00a0dahil olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde\u00a010’undan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar\u0131 etkiliyor. T\u00fcrkiye de etkilenecek \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yeral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Climate Central’in elde etti\u011fi yeni y\u00fckseklik verileri, tehdit alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerin mahalle d\u00fczeyinde incelenebilmesi i\u00e7in \u00a0interaktif harita da<\/a>\u00a0i\u00e7eriyor. 2050’ye kadar olan d\u00f6nemde yap\u0131lan k\u0131y\u0131sal risk analizi harita verilerine g\u00f6re \u0130stanbul’da Ey\u00fcp ve Hask\u00f6y b\u00f6lgeleri, Be\u015fikta\u015f’ta \u00c7\u0131ra\u011fan k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc k\u00f6pr\u00fc ve Poyrazk\u00f6y sahili, Sar\u0131yer dolgu alanlar\u0131 \u00f6ncelikli olarak tehdit alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131nda. Adalar s\u00f6zkonusu oldu\u011funda ise K\u0131nal\u0131ada’da Su Sporlar\u0131\u00a0Kl\u00fcb\u00fc ve ta\u015foca\u011f\u0131 \u00a0b\u00f6lgeleri, Burgazada’da \u00c7amakya ve Kalpazankaya, Heybeliada’da \u00c7am Liman\u0131, \u015eafak tesisleri ve Kablo plaj\u0131 b\u00f6lgesi, Sivriada ve Yass\u0131ada’da liman b\u00f6lgeleri tehdit alt\u0131nda. \u00a0(4)<\/p>\n

Bu bulgular, Climate Central taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen yeni bir dijital y\u00fckseklik modeli olan CoastalDEM\u2019e dayand\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. CoastalDEM ile elde edilen tahminler, risk alt\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel n\u00fcfusun SRTM y\u00fckseklik verileri kullan\u0131larak tespit edilenden \u00fc\u00e7 kat fazla oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.\u00a0Climate Central taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan\u00a0bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma\u00a0<\/a>135 \u00fclkeyi farkl\u0131 iklim senaryolar\u0131 ve y\u0131llara g\u00f6re ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"denizkuresel\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye dair veriler ise d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda karbon emisyonu azalt\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u015fu anda 850.000 ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan, 2100 itibari ile y\u0131lda ortalama en az bir defa ta\u015fk\u0131na maruz kalacak. \u015eu anda 790.000 ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan ise gelgitlerde d\u00fczenli olarak su alt\u0131nda kalacak.\u00a0Rapora g\u00f6re, k\u0131y\u0131 tahkimat\u0131 olmadan 2050 itibar\u0131yla en az y\u0131lda bir kere k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayabilecek ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131, yeni y\u00fckseklik verileriyle d\u00f6rt kat\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde artarak, yakla\u015f\u0131k 237 milyon ki\u015fiye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu n\u00fcfusun b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 6 Asya \u00fclkesinde ya\u015f\u0131yor \u2013 (\u00c7in, Banglade\u015f, Hindistan, Vietnam, Endonezya ve Tayland).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"images-8\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Tehdit seviyesi karbon emisyonu d\u00fczeyine ba\u011fl\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

CoastalDEM\u2019e dayand\u0131r\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmelere g\u00f6re, bug\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 420 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin, makul d\u00fczeyde karbon emisyonu azalt\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lsa bile, bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k k\u0131y\u0131 ta\u015fk\u0131nlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Kontrol edilemeyen emisyon ve buz tabakas\u0131ndaki muhtemel erken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7l\u0131 karars\u0131zl\u0131k ve erime projeksiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla halihaz\u0131rda 340 milyonun ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar gelgit seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalacak ve toplam 640 milyon ki\u015finin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerler de deniz seviyesindeki y\u00fckselme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak. g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dipnotlar<\/p>\n

(1) Hay, C. C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R. E. & Mitrovica, J. X. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.\u00a0Nature<\/i>\u00a0517, 481\u2013484 (2015).<\/p>\n

(2) https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-019-12808-z<\/p>\n

(3) Kopp, R. E. et al. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites.\u00a0Earth\u2019s. Future<\/i>\u00a02, 383\u2013406 (2014).\u00a0Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Lorbacher, K. & Wigley, T. M. L. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections the MAGICC sea level model v2.0.\u00a0Geoscientific Model Dev.<\/i>\u00a010, 2495\u20132524 (2017).<\/p>\n

(4)\u00a0https:\/\/coastal.climatecentral.org\/map\/16\/28.9912\/40.8687\/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=coastal_dem_comparison&elevation_model=coastal_dem&forecast_year=2050&pathway=rcp45&percentile=p50&return_level=return_level_1&slr_model=kopp_2014<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Etkisi giderek artan k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, karbon emisyonu ve iklim krizi d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda deniz seviyelerini y\u00fckseltmeye devam ediyor. \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel ortalama deniz seviyesi yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131lda 11\u201316 cm y\u00fckselirken\u00a0(1), bu y\u00fckseli\u015f karbon emisyonlar\u0131ndaki k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemlere ra\u011fmen atarak devam ediyor. \u00a0Climate Central taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ve Nature Communications\u2019da yay\u0131mlanan (2) bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, 2050\u00a0y\u0131l\u0131na kadar\u00a0yakla\u015f\u0131k\u00a0300 milyon …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4859,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[102,119,116,17,139,83,14],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4847"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4847"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4847\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4951,"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4847\/revisions\/4951"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4859"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dokuzadabirdeniz.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}